In the midst of the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf, an often-overlooked resource is under threat: water. While the world's attention has been focused on the impact of war on oil prices and energy production, the region's water supply, which relies heavily on desalination, is facing an unprecedented crisis. This article delves into the hidden vulnerabilities of the Gulf's water infrastructure and explores the broader implications for the region and beyond.
The Water-Energy Nexus
The Persian Gulf, known for its vast oil reserves, is also home to hundreds of desalination plants, which provide drinking water to millions. These plants, which remove salt from seawater, are an essential lifeline in one of the world's driest regions. However, they are also incredibly vulnerable to attack.
Michael Christopher Low, director of the Middle East Center at the University of Utah, describes these countries as "saltwater kingdoms" and highlights the double-edged nature of their water superpower status. While desalination is a monumental achievement, it also presents a unique vulnerability. The war has already brought fighting close to key desalination infrastructure, with strikes on Dubai's Jebel Ali port and damage reported at facilities in the UAE and Kuwait.
Interconnected Risks
Many Gulf desalination plants are integrated with power stations, meaning attacks on electrical infrastructure can disrupt water production. David Michel, a water security expert, describes this as an "asymmetric tactic" employed by Iran to impose costs on Gulf countries. Ed Cullinane, Middle East editor at Global Water Intelligence, emphasizes that these assets are no more protected than other municipal areas, leaving them exposed to missile and drone attacks.
Historical Concerns and Future Threats
The risks posed by attacks on desalination plants are not new. A 2010 CIA analysis warned of national crises if these facilities were targeted, and a leaked diplomatic cable highlighted the vulnerability of Saudi Arabia's capital, Riyadh. Climate change adds another layer of complexity, increasing the likelihood of cyclones and extreme weather events that could damage coastal desalination plants. Moreover, desalination itself contributes to climate change, producing significant carbon emissions and harming marine ecosystems.
A History of Attacks
The threat to desalination plants is not hypothetical. During the 1990-1991 Gulf War, Iraqi forces sabotaged desalination facilities, leaving Kuwait without fresh water and dependent on emergency imports. More recently, Houthi rebels in Yemen have targeted Saudi desalination plants. These incidents reflect a broader erosion of norms against attacking civilian infrastructure, as seen in conflicts around the world.
Iran's Water Crisis
Ironically, Iran, which has targeted Gulf desalination plants, is facing its own water crisis. After years of extreme drought, Tehran's reservoirs are at critically low levels, prompting talk of evacuating the capital. Unlike Gulf states, Iran relies on rivers and aquifers, but its limited desalination capacity and infrastructure constraints leave it vulnerable. As Cullinane notes, the situation in Iran this summer could be dire, with the country facing sustained military action, an economic crisis, and a severe water shortage.
Broader Implications
The vulnerability of Gulf desalination plants highlights the interconnected nature of modern infrastructure and the potential for cascading disruptions. It also underscores the importance of water security in a region already facing significant environmental challenges. As the world watches the conflict unfold, it is crucial to recognize that the stakes are not just about oil, but also about the very resource that sustains life: water.
