In a remarkable achievement, CIBC’s chief market technician, Sid Mokhtari, has once again outperformed the TSX index for the fourth year in a row. His monthly selection of stocks continues to show impressive results, sparking interest among investors and analysts alike.
Mokhtari regularly releases a report detailing his top ten stock picks, and his systematic approach has proven to yield significant returns. He carefully analyzes and chooses stocks from the largest one hundred companies by market capitalization within the S&P/TSX Composite Index. His recommendations are based on technical analysis, which has consistently led to better performance than the wider index under various market conditions.
Last December, Mokhtari's chosen stocks climbed by 1.36%, surpassing the TSX's return of 1.05%. Over the course of 2025, his portfolio achieved a notable rise of 51.3%, while the broader index only saw a 28.3% increase (this figure does not account for dividends). Furthermore, his selections have outpaced the S&P/TSX Composite Index in previous years: 2024 by 5.8 percentage points, 2023 by 6.3 percentage points, and 2022 by 2.7 percentage points.
For January, he has curated a diverse selection of ten new stocks spanning six different sectors. Within the materials sector, he has included three companies: CCL Industries (CCL-B-T), Ivanhoe Mines (IVN-T), and Nutrien (NTR-T). In the consumer discretionary category, his picks feature Dollarama (DOL-T) and Gildan Activewear (GIL-T). The financial sector selections comprise Fairfax Financial Holdings (FFH-T) and Great-West Lifeco (GWO-T). Additionally, Premium Brands Holdings (PBH-T) represents the consumer staples sector, while Quebecor (QBR-B-T) adds to the telecom space, and TFI International (TFII-T) rounds out his industrial stock choice.
Looking forward, January is historically seen as a positive month for the stock market. Mokhtari highlights that, over the past three decades, the S&P/TSX Composite Index has averaged a return of 1.2% during this month. Sector performance varies, with some sectors showing returns between zero and 6.3%. Notably, health care, technology, communication services, and materials are among the top-performing sectors, posting gains of 6.3%, 5.2%, 1.4%, and 1.4% respectively. Conversely, the utilities sector has lagged behind, recording an average return of zero percent in January.
Regarding potential trends for the upcoming year, Mokhtari expressed in a report dated January 2 that it seems plausible to anticipate a shift in market dynamics. He noted, "It may be reasonable to suggest that market internals and relative strength rotations have already begun to shift in favor of cyclicals, value, and GARP (growth at a reasonable price) stocks, with supportive earnings, at the expense of momentum and high-beta stocks, which often carry inflated valuations. Our mean-reversion model also indicates a possible positive relative reversal in low volatility and quality factors that have significantly underperformed." This perspective raises intriguing questions about market trends—will the focus on cyclical and value stocks lead to a substantial shift in investment strategies? What do you think about these insights? Share your thoughts below!
