India's ambitious metro train expansion has raised some intriguing questions about urban mobility and public transport. While the country has invested billions in building metro networks, the actual ridership often falls short of expectations. This article delves into the reasons behind this discrepancy and explores the broader implications for India's transportation landscape.
The Metro Paradox
In a bustling city like Mumbai, one might expect the newly opened Aqua Line metro train to be packed with commuters. Yet, on a typical weekday evening, the train empties out before reaching its final destination, leaving the last station looking more like a forgotten relic than a vibrant transport hub. This scenario is not unique to Mumbai; it's a trend seen across India's rapidly expanding metro network.
Since 2014, the Narendra Modi government has poured over $26 billion into constructing metro connectivity in nearly two dozen Indian cities. The network has grown exponentially, quadrupling in size from under 300 km to over 1,000 km by 2025. However, the average daily ridership has not kept pace with these grand numbers.
Most metro systems in India struggle to achieve even a fraction of the projected ridership. Experts attribute this to a combination of factors, including inaccurate demand projections, affordability issues, and poor network planning.
Demand Projections: A Complex Task
One of the key challenges lies in accurately predicting the potential demand for metro services. Ashish Verma, an expert from the Sustainable Transportation Lab, highlights the complexity of this task. Consultants often exaggerate demand figures to make projects appear economically viable, leading to unrealistic expectations.
For instance, train frequencies and the number of coaches play a significant role in determining ridership. In Bengaluru, the peak-hour frequency on the busiest line is a mere five minutes, while on a newer line, it stretches to 25 minutes. Similarly, many trains operate with only three to six coaches, falling short of the nine-coach standard seen in the world's busiest metro systems.
Affordability and Subsidies
Aditya Rane, another transport expert, emphasizes the impact of affordability on ridership. In Indian metro systems, the cost of an integrated journey can consume up to 20% of lower-income workers' income, exceeding the global benchmark of 10-15%.
Verma adds that the reduction in subsidies, while seemingly logical, may not be the best approach in a price-sensitive market like India. He draws a comparison with the heavily subsidized London Tube, arguing that subsidies are necessary to provide sustainable mobility and decongest cities.
Network Planning and Last-Mile Connectivity
Nandan Dawda, a Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation's Urban Studies programme, highlights the importance of network planning and last-mile connectivity. He believes that people will switch to public transport only when waiting times are minimized. In India, the lack of sufficient feeder buses for last-mile connectivity and long transfer times between metro lines are significant deterrents.
Safety and Accessibility
Safety and accessibility concerns also play a role in suppressing demand. Verma notes that access to and from metro stations must be convenient to encourage the use of public transport. For tourists and residents alike, navigating busy streets with luggage or ensuring personal safety, especially for women traveling after sunset, can be challenging.
The Way Forward
Despite the current challenges, experts foresee a gradual increase in metro ridership. Traffic congestion, pollution, and road safety issues are reaching critical levels in many Indian cities, prompting calls for congestion pricing for private vehicles. However, without improvements in the metro experience, including better integration with bus networks, station access, and fare structures, India may continue to build metros that fail to meet their original projections.
In my opinion, India's metro expansion is a fascinating case study in urban planning and transportation. It highlights the complexities of predicting and meeting the mobility needs of a diverse population. As the country continues to invest in its metro network, addressing these challenges will be crucial to ensuring that these systems become the preferred mode of transport for commuters.
